GroupM released its ‘This Year, Next Year’ 2024 Global Midyear Forecast report. The report estimates that global advertising revenue will grow by 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion.

In 2025, the industry is set to surpass $1 trillion in revenue in the US, with:

• Increase of 6.8% to $1.1 trillion, one year earlier than the initial forecast made in December 2023.
• As per the revised estimates for the U.S., ad revenue is now expected to reach $365.9 billion, up 5.8% over 2023’s $345.9 billion.
• The report estimates a growth of 4.9% in 2025 in the US.

Top Markets

China features among the top 10 agency markets in the second position behind the U.S., with an expected growth rate of 14%, and $199.4 billion in ad revenue. Australia also features in the list, with an expected growth rate of 1.1%, and an ad revenue forecast of $15.8 billion in ad revenue.

India is also included in the list of eight positions, with an expected rise of 9.5% in 2024, and ad revenue reported to reach $18.5 billion. Political advertising would account for 0.9% of total ad revenue. According to the report, almost one billion eligible voters in India will be among half of the world’s population asked to cast ballots this year. A large number of those voters will be exposed to political advertising, particularly those in the Americas, Africa, and Asia.

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Key themes impacting the predictions:

Global advertising titans

The two biggest growth drivers are undoubtedly the United States and China, whose combined GDP accounts for 57.1% of global ad revenue. By 2024, they will have added $44.5 billion to their totals, or almost 1.5 times the $24.7 billion in incremental revenue that all other markets combined have generated. They also produce more than 40% of the world’s GDP and are home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers.

AI-enabled Advertising

Artificial intelligence (AI) will be used to inform 69.5% of ad revenue in 2024 and reach 94.1% by 2029—three years ahead of schedule. To succeed in this field, advertisers must experiment, learn, and cultivate talent now, not in a year.

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Media Channel Forecasts

• Digital: Digital pure-play advertising will grow 10% in 2024, making up 70% or two-thirds of the total revenue for the year, equalling $669 billion.
• Search: Search advertising revenue is expected to grow 5.3% in 2024 and accelerate to 6.3% in 2025. Search will account for 20.9% of total ad revenue in 2024.
• Retail Media: The channel remains the fastest-growing segment of digital, forecast to add 17.5% in 2024 and 13.5% in 2025.
• Television: Total TV, including both linear or traditional TV and its digital extensions (CTV), is expected to grow 2.7% to $163.2 billion in 2024, after a decline of 0.4% in 2023.
• OOH: OOH advertising is expected to reach $49.7 billion in 2024, 41% of which will be digital OOH. It represents an 11.5% increase over 2023 for total OOH.
• Audio: Audio advertising is forecast to hit $27 billion in global revenue for 2024, up 0.8% over 2023. Growth will remain around 1% over the next three years, driven by increases in digital audio. This will add nearly three billion dollars from an expected $7.9 billion in 2024 to $10.6 billion in 2029.

Here’s what they said

The report stated,

“The marketing ecosystem will face potential impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world in the next few years. These impacts have the potential to upend forecasts and alter even the soundest projections. Artificial intelligence also has the potential to reshape the industry – as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles.”

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