Where Do These Global Companies Stand At The End Of Q1: Performance, Insights, And Statistics
We bring you insights and earning calls on various media companies, publishers, agencies, brands, and tech companies performing on a quarterly basis. The iteration focuses on media companies’ financial performance in the 2020 first quarter and taps all the vital data.
Q1 2020 earnings and performance
Though the waters are choppy ahead, we are optimistic that the worst is behind us and have learned to live with the new normal. Consumer habits are changing and the future is more accelerated towards the digital economy. The media landscape has changed especially the TV front and the focus is on opening businesses again with advertising driving the demand.
Q2 Outlook
Q2 advertising for publishers is estimated to be significantly down as much as 25-30% Y-o-Y and for some even 50-55% down. Few companies like Facebook, Snap, Dotdash expects Q2 revenue to be flat or slightly up Y-o-Y. Here are a few key points to consider:
- Google revenue declines by 15% year- over -year, though search activity increased. Advertising spends decreased due to coronavirus recession. However, other advertising mediums are growing like connected TV, ads in video games, or ads in video conferencing.
- International TV ad sales are down by 30-35% Y-o-Y whereas programmatic revenue decreased by 40-45%.
- Performance ads are down year-over-year and demand from industries like restaurants, travel, retail, auto, and luxury has declined.
- Some advertisers seek opportunities and increase spending in financial services, insurance, telecom, technology, streaming services, and app downloads. Gaming and streaming are gaining a strong foothold and permanently taking a share of our time and wallets.
- CPM’s down by almost 50% giving an advantage to advertisers for huge bargains. New and existing advertisers are looking to acquire new customers at a lifetime low value.
- With no new live events expected on TV till September/October, it will boost the growth of CTV.
- Attribution for marketers is easy as most sales are online than in-store. The animation is expected to be robust in Q3 and Q4.
- 90-95% workforce for media companies are operating from home and CMO’s can justify spending using data-driven advertising with trackable ROAS.
Let’s take a look at the financial report card of the global giants.
The Trade Desk
The opening remarks from the trade desks on the present scenario are as follows – Programmatic’s greatest feature is ‘Agility’. One can easily start and stop the programmatic campaigns, unlike linear television. Early April witnesses advertisers stopped/pause ad spend in certain verticals especially travel and remained active in health, technology, games, home, and garden.
However, by mid-April year-over-year spend decline stabilized, and as the month progressed things started improving. Advertisers were trying to adapt to the present environment. For instance, restaurants changed their messaging to “We are open” or “We deliver.” Consumer products focused on pantry loading and travel companies planned to waive off cancellation fees for bookings. Basically, advertisers started to strategize on how to run businesses on the other side of the pandemic. Now, every company is trying to work out an advertising strategy to connect to consumers and gain share once the economy gets going.
CTV is a clear winner as linear TV’s life is shortened. Unlike traditional TV ads investment where brands and agencies commit billions of dollars without knowing the content and audience, they have the freedom to be more deliberate, liberal, and agile on CTV.
Roku:
- Pandemic has accelerated the shift to streaming by viewers due to excellent content and value.
- In the short term, the video advertising business has slowed down due to budget cuts and low spending by advertisers.
- In the streaming business, active accounts grew roughly 38% Y-o-Y with an increase in new accounts of more than 70% Y-o-Y.
- Streaming hours grew roughly 80% in April and the increase in streaming hours per account is approximately 30%.
- It is estimated that ad business will grow at a slower pace and gross profit margin will be lower than expected for the year.
- The behavioral changes of TV ad buyers are positive in the long-term and more people are expected to stay home to control spending in the light of economic hardships and the shift to streaming business will grow further.
Google:
- In March there was a sudden slowdown in ad revenues owing to COVID 19 and lockdown orders. The first two months of Q1 reflected strong growth. Google search and other advertising revenues generated $24.5 billion, up 9% Y-o-Y.
- After the 2008 crisis, the Google search can be adjusted easily-quickly turn-off and back on which is cost-effective and ROI based. At the inception of the coronavirus crisis, users’ interest was more for information on the virus and non-commercial topics providing less opportunity for monetization.
- Q2 looks difficult for the advertising business.
- YouTube advertising revenues were up 33% year-on-year to $4 billion however there were different performance trajectories for direct response and brand advertising.
- Direct response continued to grow throughout the quarter but brand advertising growth grew for the first two months of the quarter and declined in March. This resulted in the slowdown of Youtube ad revenues by the end of March.
- Similarly, networking ad revenue was $5.2 billion, up 4%Y-o-Y for the first 2 months of the quarter, and declined in March in the low-double-digits year-on-year.
Spotify:
- Ads are a small part of the business, nearly 10% of the overall revenues. Therefore it is less impacted compared to other businesses.
- From a long term perspective, it will be an opportunity to move from linear to on-demand due to COVID 19 crisis.
- It is suspected that advertisers will move from pure reach to more measurable ad formats -mostly analog ad formats.
- The conjecture on advertising and consumption front is what is already happening of linear shifting to digital.
Learn more: Spotify Adds $1.7B To Market Cap In 23 Min Post A Deal With Joe Rogan, World’s Leading Podcaster.
Rubicon:
- The first half of April’s revenue was roughly 30% down until it showed signs of stabilizing in the second half.
- CTV continued to grow at a slower rate in April with a Y-o-Y increase of nearly 10%. Ad slot availability grew by roughly 25% compared to pre-COVID 19.
- Being an omnichannel SSP there has been diversity in ad categories and even more after the merger with Telaria. Certain verticals were highly impacted like travel in entertainment but e-commerce, technology, and direct-to-consumer were benefitted.
- Upfront deals are canceled and focus is shifted to spend from linear to the spot market that programmatic serves.
Microsoft:
- Reduction in ad spend affected Search and LinkedIn business and assumes that the advertising spend will not improve in Q2 as well.
- Search revenue ex-Tac increased by 1%.
Apple Advertising:
- The economic slowdown and uncertainty on business reopening have impacted the advertising business – which is the sum of App Store search ads, Apple news, and third party agreements on the advertising front.
- This slowdown and uncertain future will have a strong effect on the Service business for the June quarter.
Verizon:
- Owing to the COVID-19 crisis, ad revenue declined by 10% in the second -half of March and the rate of decline only increases in April.
- Industry forecasts a fall of 20-30% in digital media and Verizon media results are likely to be similar.
- It also experienced a decline in advertising and search revenue due to hold back or cancellation of campaigns by advertisers and users searching for fewer commercial terms providing less opportunity for monetization.
- Finally, some staggering numbers were seen- 200% up on gaming, 40% up on video, and 10 times up on the collaboration tools. 800 million calls a day, is double the amount on Mother’s Day, the biggest day of the year.
Netflix:
- Increase in subscriber growth in March and is a pull forward for the rest of the year leading to an assumption that subs will be light in Q3 and Q4.
- Filming is stopped globally except Korea and Iceland.
- Customer services are fully restored with 2000+ agents working remotely.
- With the lockdown orders coming into effect in LA, animation production is up and working from home whereas the post-production of 200+ projects is in pipeline remotely.
- Series writers’ rooms are operating virtually.
- Netflix has invested in Open connect, a pioneering cache system that puts content library as close to members’ homes as possible. This enables ISP’s to run their network efficiently and at a lower cost. However, some countries networks may face issues due to the increasing usage of the internet.
Omnicon
- The company doesn’t collect weekly revenue numbers by the agency and roll them up at the Omnicom group level.
- Q2 downfall is expected in double digits and year-on-year revenues will be down.
- The future is challenging but the company expects to get many of those people back as they move into the year ahead.
Learn more about the quarterly performance of other media companies: Financial Report Card Of The Global Giants And Industries In COVID-19
Financial Report Card Of The Global Giants And Industries In COVID-19
Media companies are facing distress owing to the pandemic crisis, particularly those relying on advertising revenue. The current situation is precarious that compelled companies to roll out furloughs, pay cuts, or layoffs.
Even though publishers are recording high traffic, there is a mismatch in demand and supply in the ad market. Subscriptions are a silver lining for publishers but again sustainability is in question. Many businesses are impacted due to cancelled live events like sports that would bring a vast sum of revenue. Newsstands sales have also witnessed a fall.
Keeping the above factors in mind, below is the analysis of leading media companies’ financial and quarterly reports and their progress in this crisis.
CONGLOMERATES
Bertelsmann: Ad funded businesses were affected while music, services, and education business performed well.
The German media conglomerate Bertelsmann’s revenue declined by 2.7%. The advertising-funded business Q 1 was “highly affected” by the pandemic. Within the digital business RTL Group specifically, the revenue was down 3.4 % owing to the cancellation of ad bookings at the start of March or postponement of productions.
Music business BMG, its Arvato services business and its education business performed well. Subscription to the online streaming services was up 34% Y-o-Y.
Comcast/NBCUniversal: Broadband business upticks whereas rolling out Peacock streaming service.
Comcast is a large company with its broadband business marks an uptick with signups. and revenues up by8.8%. On the other hand, its theme park, TV and film production business is on hold.
NBCUniversal and newly acquired Sky TV cannot broadcast live sports. The company expects the advertising business to be down significantly in Q2
NBCUniversal Q1 revenue was down 7% and it rolled out ad-supported Peacock streaming service to Comcast customers in April.
Disney: Theme Parks and Sports Broadcast Shut, Disney+ subscribers up.
The crisis led to shutting down of theme parks, and productions and theatre movie releases were put to hold. Ad revenue at its TV business was affected as ESPN couldn’t air any live sports.
However, it stepped up the launch of ad-free streaming service in European countries. Disney+ had 33.5 million subscribers by the end of Q1 and an average of $5.63 in monthly revenue per paid user. Disneyland Shanghai did reopen, at 30% capacity on May 11.
WarnerMedia (owned by AT&T): Q1 Revenues severely hit.
Recently, folded its Xandr advanced advertising unit into a bigger WarnerMedia business.
Q1 revenues of WarnerMedia was down 12% on the year-ago quarter to $7.4 billion due to lower ad revenues in March on sports cancellations. Movie productions are also on hold.
PUBLISHERS
News Corp: Circulation and Subscription revenue grows, Ad revenue takes a hit.
Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp includes various leading and established brands like The Wall Street Journal, The Sun, and many more in U.S, U.K, and Australia.
Overall revenue declined 7.8% to $2.27 billion in Q1 due to weak ad business, low ad revenues, and negative currency movements. April ad revenue for Dow Jones declined 20% from the prior year whereas for News Corp Australia and News UK fell by more than 45% which includes negative currency impact.
The Wall Street Journal reported circulation and subscription revenue growth by 1% reaching a record subscriber base of 3 million overall, of which 2.2 million are digital-only.
The New York Times: Focus on Subscription Revenue to thrive in the post coronavirus world.
The NYT is leading more emphasis on subscription revenues to reduce its dependency on ad revenue to be in a better position and thrive post coronavirus world.
NYT recorded the highest quarterly increase in new digital-only subscriptions-up 587,000 in Q1 -leading to a 5.4% increase in subscription revenue to $285.4 million. Ad revenue fell by 15% and likely to fall further in Q2 somewhere between 50% and 55%.
“Other revenues” segment is estimated to fall around 10% as licensing revenue from Facebook News is expected to be “more than offset”- by lower revenue from its live events and its TV series.
TV AND CABLE
Discovery: Their channels are new sports.
Discovery CEO David Zaslav on the Q1 earnings call said, “Our channels are the new sports — the numbers are huge” around its lifestyle channels like HGTV, Food Network, and DIY. The engagement with the characters and talent is enormous. Discovery is also saving money productions through the pandemic as the film shows from home.
Total revenue declined from 1£ in the first quarter to $2.68 billion and expects advertising revenue to fall significantly in 2020. Many sports events are postponed and 90% of the sports deals have force majeure provisions or provisions to not pay for the content that is not received.
Fox: Fox News gains the largest audience.
Revenue for the three months to March 31 rose 25% supported by the forecast of Super Bowl in February, an increase in political advertising, and growth in affiliate revenue. But in March entered coronavirus crisis leading to the postponement of sports events and suspensions of entertainment shows.
80% who signed up for Fox Nation streaming service from Fox news continued to become paying subscribers and advertisers from sectors like technology and communications looked for the transition from sports buy to news buy. Ad revenue within local TV stations to be down 50% from last year.
ViacomCBS: Streaming revenue continues to grow and more on its way441.2 b
Revenue for Q1 fell 6% to $6.67 billion of which advertising revenue marked a 19% drop though a comparison to last year would be unfair when it aired Super bowl and basketball tournament.
Streaming continues to grow- domestic and digital revenue up by 51% to $471 million and had 13.5 million streaming subscribers. It intends to build “a broad pay streaming product in multiple markets” over the next 12 months. It announced a distribution deal with YouTube TV, which will carry 14 ViacomCBS channels
DIGITAL GIANTS
Alphabet or Google: Faring well in this crisis and a better situation.
Q1 revenue stood at $41.2 billion, up 13% Y-o-Y basis(including Google cloud revenue and the ‘other bets’ segment).
According to CFO Ruth Porat, Youtube’s March revenue “decelerated to a year-on-year growth rate in the high single digits” and Google Network March revenue declined “in the low double digits.”
Google Cuts Marketing Budgets by 50%, Freezes Hiring, and launched a “Journalism Emergency Relief Fund”.
Baidu: A closer watch on the signs of recovery in the upcoming result.
Chinese advertising giant Baidu was the first to report the coronavirus crisis set to affect media companies and expect a revenue drop of between 5% and 13% due to advertiser pullback.
In April, it suspended updating content on certain newsfeed channels within its app due to government directives which may impact its marketing services revenue. On May 18, Baidu will give the next quarterly update, and would be worth watching whether there is any recovery in the ad business.
Amazon: The advertising business grew as directly related to eCommerce sales
Amazon’s Q1 revenue soared as consumers quickly shifted to shopping online amidst the coronavirus crisis. Conversely, revenue rose 26%, and profit dropped 29% compared to last year’s quarter. The cost grew to finish the surge in orders
In the financial statement, the ‘other’ category is advertising business- revenue grew by 40% to $3.9 billion in Q1. The growth is consistent with a little downward pressure in March but no major impact as its directly related to eCommerce sales. ‘
Facebook: Post Strong Earnings, Exceeds Projections
Facebook ad revenue grew by 17% Y-o-Y to $17.4 billion despite the instability in the digital ad market due to COVID-19.
Facebook saw strength in the advertiser’s vertical- gaming, technology, and e-commerce whereas travel and automotive were the weakest verticals in the first three weeks of March.
Facebook had Pledged $2M Grant Funding To Support Publishers Financially.
Snapchat: Users and Revenue Increases, ad spend declines
Snapchat reported in its Q1 2020 earnings – strong gains in both users and revenues but a dip in advertiser spend despite the growing concerns about the coronavirus pandemic. the company reported a 44 percent (Y-o-Y) increase in its first-quarter revenue to $462 million. Snap benefited as people used animated lenses to keep in touch with loved ones in this lockdown. Snapchat’s daily active user (DAV) base reached 229 million.
Direct-response advertising accounts for more than half of the company’s revenue and clients in sectors like gaming, e-commerce, and consumer packaged goods continue to spend even during the crisis.
Twitter: Work in progress over AdTech concerns
Twitter’s user growth jumped in March as people rushed to check the latest news updates related to the coronavirus. Despite a 9% growth in daily users, revenue was up only 2.6% to $807.6 million and reported a loss of 8.4 million in Q1 results.
In comparison to its competitors, Twitter doesn’t have a direct-response advertising business. Therefore, the company is improving its mobile application promotion products and rebuilding its ad server which is expected to be up and running by Q2.
Project Agora Partners With Taboola For A New Native Content Solution- ‘Explore More’
Publishers have a new tool in their monetization kitty with the launch of Project Agora’s new Native Content Solution, Explore More.
Over 15,000 websites use Project Agora’s Native Content feature in partnership with Taboola to drive revenue, increase engagement and page views, and acquire new customers.
What is Explore More?
‘Explore More’ is designed to make mobile users, who are visiting the publisher’s site directly from social media and apps to stay longer and re-engaging them before they exit with the relevant content recommendation.
Explore More serves organic and sponsored content. However, they feature 70% organic content which increases organic re-circulation and improves revenue.
How Beneficial is it?
Explore More has impressive results on smartphones and Tablets.
On Smartphones, it brings 60% uplift in RPM (Revenue per Thousand Pageviews) and 100% uplift in Organic CTR whereas, on Tablets, it brings a 45% uplift in RPM and 30% uplift in Organic CTR.
How to Use it?
It is simple to use for publishers already working with Project Agora by just adding the Explore More feature to the website. Project Agora’s expert team will undertake all the processes, and there is no work needed from the publisher to start seeing immediate results.
Project Agora’s Publishers such as protothema.gr, alon.hu, a1.ro, alwatanvoice.com have already upped their game by implementing Explore More on their mobile websites
Dimitris Tsoukalas, Regional Director MEA, Project Agora said,
“More than 19 of Project Agora’s publishers, in the Middle East and Africa, have already upped their game by implementing Explore More on their mobile websites. In their battle to retain users for as long as possible and increase ad-revenues, Explore More is a no-brainer, quick win for publishers.”
Also Read: Project Agora Co-founds the New EMEA Video Advertising Platform- Union
Shopify Revenue Surges As Pandemic Brings More Business Online
E-commerce platform and payment provider Shopify reported its first-quarter revenue that surpassed analysts’ estimates as more businesses moved online to survive coronavirus pandemic.
The Ottawa-based company Shopify said in a statement that sales grew by 47% to $470 million from the same quarter a year ago. However, analysts expected revenues to come to around $443 million
The key metric of gross merchandise volume which represents all goods sold on the platform 46% to 17.42 billion compared to the previous year. Again, beating analysts expected volume to $16.68 billion.
While sales were booming, the company still posted a net loss of $31.4 million or 27 cents a share. However, on an adjusted basis, the company posted a profit of $22.3 million or 19 cents per share for the first quarter of 2020 compared with an adjusted profit of $7.1 million or six cents per share for the same period last year.
CEO Tobi Lutke said in the quarterly release,
We are working as fast as we can to support our merchants by re-tooling our products to help them adapt to this new reality. Our goal is that, because Shopify exists, more entrepreneurs and small businesses will get through this.
Moving Online
Shopify reported a fall of 71% in gross merchandise volume through its store point-of-sale as stores shut down due to pandemic between March 31 and April 24. Companies also downgraded from Shopify Plus to lower-priced plans.
Also, it throws light on the drop in point-of-sale purchases from the brick and mortar stores questions the sustainability of online switch. It provides store based point-of-sale systems to merchants to operate from a single platform in order to maintain online store and sales.
It is closely observing consumer spending habits online and the ability of brick-and-mortar retail merchants to shift sales online. According to the company statement, Shopify retailers managed to replace 94% of their store volume with online sales.
Retail merchants are adapting quickly to social-distance selling, as 26% of our brick-and-mortar merchants in our English-speaking geographies are now using some form of local in-store/curbside pickup and delivery solution, compared to 2% at the end of February.
Chief technology officer Jean-Michel Lemieux noted the surging demand and had U.S. Black Friday-type of traffic as businesses have used Shopify to stay afloat as nationwide lockdown forces retail store closure across the world.
Impact of COVID-19
This pandemic has strained small and medium-sized businesses and accelerated the shift of buying habits to eCommerce. Shopify introduced many initiatives to support merchants and help entrepreneurs start a business online during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, including, offering tools to businesses to open their own digital store online across channels including social media.
An extended 90 day free trial for new sign-ups, gift card capabilities to merchants, and introduction to in-store or curbside pickup and delivery options for greater flexibility in the movement of inventory between different locations.
The company stated that the new stores created on the platform grew 62% between March 13 and April 24 versus the prior six weeks, driven by both first times and established sellers. But is also added,
It is unclear how many in this cohort will sustainably generate sales, which is the primary determinant of merchant longevity on our platform.
What analysts have to say
Few analysts still don’t see Shopify profitable enough in the future to justify the current stock price. They believe the rally is overdone.
Barry Schwartz, chief investment officer at Baskin Wealth in Toronto notes that as they grow, the company will face fierce competition from rival Amazon. He added,
They’re up against some very heavy hitters and I don’t think those guys are going to let Shopify win everything.
Buying it here at that valuation, you’re essentially saying, ‘I don’t care.’
Canaccord Genuity downgraded the stock, with a warning “we’re not entirely convinced” that gross merchandise volume “is as bulletproof as perceived.”
Facebook Post Strong Earnings in Q1’20, Exceeds Analysts Projections
Its earnings season and Facebook has some relatively good news on that for the investors. It has impressively beaten Wall Street expectations on revenue and earning per share (EPS). Facebook ad revenue grew by 17% Y-o-Y despite the instability in the digital ad market due to COVID-19.
Why does it matter?
Interestingly, Facebook was able to beat top and bottom-line revenue expectations amid the coronavirus crisis showing how its business is strong and growing. However, the company didn’t provide specific revenue guidance for Q2 due to the ongoing uncertainty but offered a snapshot on the revenues of upcoming quarters.
- Meanwhile, Facebook said that the current rise in engagement will continue but the usage will come down once the stay-at-home orders are lifted.
- The digital advertising industry has taken a hard hit due to shelter-at-home orders globally. Facebook said in a statement, “We experienced a significant reduction in the demand for advertising, as well as a related decline in the pricing of our ads, over the last three weeks of the first quarter of 2020.”
Let’s talk numbers
- Earning per share (EPS): $1.71 vs. $1.75 per share forecast by Refinitiv
- Revenue: $17.74 billion vs. $17.41 billion forecast by Refinitiv
- Daily active users (DAUs): 1.73 billion
Image Credit: Facebook
- Monthly active users (MAUs): 2.6 billion
- Family Monthly Active people (MAP): 2.99 billion monthly users across its family of apps. This metric helps to measure Facebook’s total user base across its main app, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp.
- The average revenue per user (ARPU): $6.95
- Other revenue: $297 million which is driven by sales of VR headset ‘Oculus.’
- Cash and cash equivalents: $60.29 billion
What lies ahead?
- Facebook is the third internet company that posted strong Q1 results after Snapchat and Google despite the hindrances in the digital ad market. This shows big internet companies will keep dominating the advertising ecosystem due to the pandemic.
- CCS Insight chief operating officer Martin Garner believes the impact of the virus will lead companies to use digital services from advertising to collaboration.
“………..Although Google and Facebook will take a hit from Covid-19, we expect them to be leading indicators of recovery, as digital advertising and other services show early growth in economies getting back to normal.”
Tech Giants Set To Lose billions in Ad revenue because of Coronavirus
The coronavirus has spread to 175 countries around the world, and it shows no sign of a slowdown. The virus has effectively shut down all major events around the world and has a major impact on the ad tech industry. Ad spending is falling off the cliff thanks to the disruption caused by the pandemic – major tech giants like Twitter, Google, Facebook, and others are expected to face the brunt of the slump in terms of losing billions of dollars in ad revenue this year.
Why we care
The losses aren’t going to weaken the companies but will put a dent in the extraordinary growth which everyone has experienced over the years.
Numbers speak louder
Cowen & Co. analysts estimate that the two internet giants together could see more than $44 billion worldwide ad revenue evaporate this year. They predict the following losses:
- Facebook: Drop of $15.7 billion, 19% down from the previous estimate.
- Google: Down by $28.6 billion, an 18% decline from the previous estimate.
- Twitter: Down by $701 million, 17.9% below estimate
- Snapchat: Drop by $977 million, 31.8% down from the previous estimate.
Global advertising revenue grows in the ballpark of the GDP rate. Therefore, the global economic slowdown directly affects the global advertising market.
The tech giants were forthcoming with the investors on the expected losses and here what they have to say.
- Facebook execs said in their blog post that the company has “seen a weakening in our ads business in countries taking aggressive actions to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
- Twitter announced in the press release that the company is “withdrawing its revenue and operating income guidance for the first quarter of 2020, due to the growing impact of COVID-19 on the global operating and economic environment and their effect on advertiser demand.”
That said, Both Google and Facebook will continue to make profits even with double-digit revenue drops. Analysts think the largest tech companies could emerge stronger from the coronavirus crisis than ever because of their healthy balance sheets.
U.S. Ad Revenue Growth Forecasts, FY2020
All media | Forecast pre-epidemic | Forecast March 2020 |
Excluding cyclical events
(Olympics, elections) |
4.4% | -4.4% |
Including cyclical events | 6.6 | -2.8 |
DIGITAL | ||
Excluding cyclical events | 10.9% | 3.5% |
Including cyclical events | 11.4 | 3.9 |
Digital search | 11.6 | 4.5 |
Digital social | 17.2 | 8.7 |
Digital video | 14.2 | 8.3 |
LINEAR MEDIA | ||
Excluding cyclical events | -4.4% | -15.0% |
Including cyclical events | 0.0 | -11.7 |
National TV – excl. CE | -2.7 | -13.0 |
National TV – incl. CE | -0.4 | -12.7 |
Local TV – excl. CE | -4.5 | -14.4 |
Local TV – incl. CE | 12.8 | 0.9 |
Radio | -2.3 | -14.1 |
-17.0 | -25.4 | |
Out of home | 3.7 | -11.8 |
Image Credit: Axios Visuals
What is driving the news
All the advertising-based businesses are facing the COVID-19 risk but those who are dependent on the self-service advertising revenue from small businesses, which are now shut down will be highly affected in the short term.
As quoted in AXIOS, Vincent Letang, executive vice president and director of global forecasting for Magna Global, the media buying unit of global ad agency IPG said,
“In the first half of the year, digital media vendors will feel the heat. But I still think they will recover more strongly than traditional media in the second half.”
The tech platforms make their revenue by advertising on social media and search which will take a hit in the short term for two reasons:
1. They are self-serve which means anyone can buy ads through the automated platforms at any time without any contract. Therefore, unlike TV ad contracts, there are no policies in place and brands have to adhere to when pulling the plug.
2. Mostly the ads are purchased by small businesses. Letang expressed his views to Axios,
“Hundreds of thousands of small businesses who probably count for 70% of social and search, they will stop advertising for weeks as they are closed. For some of them, it will be hard to come back, as many won’t have the liquidity to start marketing.”
What’s the future
Analysts expect overall ad revenue to go down by 4.4% excluding cyclical events due to the coronavirus impact on the economy.
Growth in the digital ad market is dominated by big tech companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat will emerge from the crisis strongly in 2021.
Magna predicts linear ad sales to decrease to 6 percent and digital media to grow 8 percent.